Inside MotoGP

Here I look at the prospects of each rider for this weekends race in Jerez. I have them listed in the order I think they will place. There are quite a few riders who have the potential to be on the podium this week and many of them have a lot to prove. Some want to win their first race of the season, some want to do well in front of a home crowd and some want to improve on last week’s disappointing results.

Valentino Rossi - He has yet to win a race this season and will be really motivated to do so. His free practice times on Friday are showing that he can do it.

Casey Stoner – Casey’s brake problems cost him the race last week. He has slipped to third in the overall rankings and will be looking to get back on top. He dominated in the winter testing at Jerez, so he will be tough to beat.

Jorge Lorenzo – Not only is this race in Spain, it will be his 22nd birthday on Monday as well. He got the better of Rossi last weekend, but I don’t think he’ll be able to do it again with all the pressure.

Dani Pedrosa – He has had a remarkable comeback from his injuries. This Spaniard will be looking to repeat his podium performance in front of a home crowd.

Loris Capirossi – Capirossi has been performing well at Jerez and is likely to continue. The Suzuki’s haven’t seemed to live up to their potential in actual races yet, but this might be the race to show that bike can get some serious championship points this year.

Colin Edwards – He had an incorrect wet race electronics set-up in Motegi which slowed him down a lot, but other than that he has been performing well this season. He’ll be out to get a podium after being very frustrated last week.

Andrea Dovizioso – With a very consistent year – two 5th place finishes – he could have podium potential this year, but has yet to show that something extra that will get him there.

Mika Kallio – Has shown that he can ride the Ducati and put in a great race last week, moving steadily through the field into 8th place. He should be able to keep up these good results and maybe even start to improve them.

Chris Vermeulan – Shifting problems last week dropped him to tenth place in the race. He hopes to do better than the mid-pack results he has had during the season so far.

Marco Melandri – Has been surprisingly good on his ex-Kawasaki. He should be able to place fairly well – for now. As the other bikes improve, his factory-less bike is in danger of slipping down the time sheets.

Nicky Hayden – Bad luck has been following him. He is desperate to show that he can put in some good results on the Ducati, but just hasn’t has the chance to do so. The weather should remain good this weekend in Jerez, allowing Nicky to get in some much needed time on the bike.

James Toseland – He has continually struggled with his Yamaha this season and will probably continue to do so.

Sete Gibernau – The returning Spaniard has not been able to regain his former glory and has not done well on the Ducati. Putting on a good show in front of his home crowd will be a tall order.

Alex de Angelis – Slipping from 6th in Qatar to 13th in Japan was not a good sign. He has some work to do if he wants to get close to the podium.

Randy de Puniet – He has not been terribly impressive this year, but at least he is not falling as much as past seasons. He will probably continue to struggle somewhere in the pack.

Toni Elias – The front tire grip on his Honda has been giving him problems (as evidence by his low-side last week), and he will probably continue to struggle with this.

Yuki Takahashi – Hopefully he will be riding a bit more carefully this week so he won’t take anyone down with him. I don’t expect a lot of improvevment from him yet.

Nicollo Canepa – Has been outclassed in MotoGP. His transition from student to full time rider will take some more time.

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We are just two days away from the first race of the season and I’m getting very excited. I was in Qatar last year for the first ever MotoGP race under the lights and had a great time. I’ll miss being there this year, but the race itself should still be thrilling. Here I take a look at how I think things will go. I’ve listed the riders in the order I think they will finish in Qatar.

Casey Stoner is expected by a lot of people, including me, to win the race. He has won the last two Qatar races and has been consistently putting down fast laps during off-season practices. In the BMW Shootout mock qualifier, he led the field by almost three-quarters of a second. The only doubt is whether his wrist is fully recovered from the operation on it over the winter. During practices he has not been putting in successions of laps that are anywhere near races distances. He claims that his wrist will not bother him.

Valentino Rossi can never be counted out of being in contention for the top spot. He lost he championship in 2006 and 2007 and came back last year to win again. He wants to show everyone that he really is the best in the world and is hungry to prove it. His Yamaha has been performing well during the tests and we know he won’t want to let Casey win the opening round. I think Casey will get away from him and Valentino will come in second.

Jorge Lorenzo has been another strong performer during the winter tests. His MotoGP debut was in Qatar last year and he impressed everyone by placing 2nd. He’ll want another podium and I think he will manage to get another it, but 3rd place this time.

Loris Capirossi‘s Suzuki has been performing well and he came in 3rd in the BMW shootout, showing that he will be a rider to be reckoned with this year. He’s experienced, healthy and with a good bike should do well, I think he will probably not be to far off the podium in this race.

Mika Kallio is the rookie with the most promise this year. He seems to be handling the Ducati well and placed 6th in the BMW shootout. I predict he’ll continue to get quicker and be able to be within a few places of a podium for this race.

Chris Vermulan has been showing some promise on the Suzuki. He placed 6th in the BMW shootout and 4th at the test in Qatar earlier this year. He should be finishing not too far off the podium this weekend.

Andrea Dovizioso has an impressive rookie season last year that earned him a factory Honda ride. He placed fourth in Qatar last year should be able to do well again this year with more experience and a fully supported bike. I don’t think he’ll be able to do quite as well this year.

Nicky Hayden is new to Ducati this year and seems to be making improvements. He has complained that the set-up on the bike is very tricky, so if he gets that right he can probably be very fast. I have a feeling he’ll get better as the season goes along and he learns the bike. In Qatar I think he’s be somewhere in the middle of the pack.

Colin Edwards now has a wall up in his garage to separate him from James Toseland. Edwards has been a consistent rider in his MotoGP career, but never seems to end up on the podium often enough to be a real threat in the overall standings. I think he’ll show similar middle-of-the-pack results this weekend.

Sete Gibernau is back after a two year break from MotoGP. Officially his heated rivalry with Rossi has been ended with the two even joking and shaking hands at a press conference. Their on track behavior might be different though. If he can re-gain his form there will be some great moments between him and the current world champion. For Qatar I don’t thing Sete will be a threat for the podium, but should be able to stay with the middle pack.

Alex De Angelis is in his second year in the top MotoGP class with his Honda. He placed a respectable 10th last year, but was never took a podium. His tests results during the off-season showed similar middle-of-the-pack results. He will likely be there again for this race.

Toni Elias struggled last year on a Ducati but has switched to Honda this year. His performance during the test seemed a little more promising than last years races, but nothing too exciting. I think he’ll be slightly closer to the bottom of the standing after Qatar than to the top.

Randy De Puniet probably has a nice smile on his face now that his Honda will be sponsored by Playboy (but he won’t be showing the Playboy logo for the Qatar race). He has always had problems with consistency and only has one podium in his four-year MotoGP career. Most likely he will continue his lackluster performance in Qatar.

Marco Melandri has unfortunately ended up on as the lone rider on a Kawasaki and will have no factory support during the season. That is too bad because the Kawasaki seemed to be performing better than it did last year and Melandri was ending up in the middle of the time sheets and may have been able to completely erase the thoughts of the miserable season he had last year on the Ducati. I think he’ll be towards the back of the pack at Qatar.

James Toseland has a hard crash at the last test and had to be taken to the hospital for a concussion. He also had a tumultuous off-season publicly bickering with team-mate Edwards. Even though he should be mostly healthy for this race, he has been struggling at the bottom of the time sheets during the tests and probably won’t be able to get up to speed for this race, staying near the back of the field.

Dani Pedrosa‘s will is strong, but his body is not. He is still recovering from a skin graft on his knee and surgery on his arm this winter. He missed the last test and was in doubt whether he would be able to race this weekend until a few days ago. Even he has admitted that he won’t be very competitive at Qatar, but will settle for a few points. I hope he manages to have a good ride without injuring himself further.

Yuki Takahashi the Honda protegee is another rookie. I don’t think he’ll be able to keep up with the more experienced riders early in the season and will finish well back in the standings at Qatar.

Niccolo Canepa is a rookie without much world championship level racing experience and spent last year as a Ducati test rider. His times during tests were well off the leaders times and I think he’ll finish at the bottom of this race.

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